The global memory market is currently under significant pressure due to strong demand from AI, data centres and high‑performance computing. This short update summarises the implications for heat pump systems and related HVAC electronics.
Impact on Heat Pump Products
Memory components such as DRAM, NAND and NOR flash are critical parts of control boards, inverters, drives and communication modules used in modern heat pump systems. The current market situation is therefore directly affecting availability, lead times and cost for heat pump electronics.
Key Market Impacts
- Severe DRAM and NAND shortages across multiple suppliers.
- Lead times extended up to 52 weeks for selected memory components.
- Significant price increases observed, ranging from 40% to over 200% year‑on‑year depending on product and supplier.
- Foundries prioritising AI and high‑margin memory (HBM), reducing capacity for industrial and HVAC‑grade components.
Cost and Supply Risks for Heat Pumps
For heat pump manufacturers, this may result in higher electronics costs, increased risk of allocation, longer production lead times and reduced flexibility for late design changes. Control boards and inverter assemblies are particularly exposed due to their dependency on multiple memory devices.
Outlook
Supply tightness is expected to continue through 2027 and potentially into 2028. Market normalisation is not expected until new memory fabrication capacity becomes available, which will take several years.
Recommended Actions
- To mitigate risks related to the memory market situation, we recommend the following actions:
- Secure long‑term supply agreements for memory‑critical control boards and drives.
- Extend demand forecasts beyond 12 months for heat pump electronics.
- Consider second‑source or alternative memory solutions where technically feasible.
- Prioritise allocation for strategic and high‑volume heat pump platforms.
